Green future! RES to play a leading role by 2034.
A green future – with a focus on sustainability, energy security, and long-term independence. According to the published Power Transmission Network Development Plan 2025–2034, the share of electricity generated from renewable energy sources (RES) is expected to exceed 50% of the country’s gross electricity consumption by the end of the period. However, during certain periods, Bulgaria will continue to rely on imports at a more competitive price.
The Energy and Water Regulatory Commission (EWRC) reviewed the document for public discussion, outlining nearly BGN 2 billion in investments to build, modernize, and expand key electricity transmission infrastructure.
Key scenarios and energy dynamics
Experts developed two scenarios, basing the main one on Bulgaria’s Integrated Energy and Climate Plan. It includes the phased decommissioning of coal and gas power plants by 2030. The plan also foresees a substantial increase in renewable energy capacity, primarily through the expansion of wind and photovoltaic power plants, alongside the integration of storage batteries. Additionally, nuclear power plants are projected to produce more than three times the electricity compared to their 2026 output levels.
In 2034, electricity supply will exceed demand by about 1.4 million MWh. However, Bulgaria will need to import electricity during the winter months, while it can potentially export electricity in the summer, depending directly on RES production dynamics.
Challenges and measures for stability
The document emphasizes the need for accurate hourly production forecasts from RES, long-term supply contracts, and widespread implementation of energy storage systems. Without them, there is a risk not only of unrealized exports but also of the need for imports in a competitive environment.
The alternative scenario relies on the construction of 1,500 MW of new gas-steam capacity with the possibility of operating with up to 10% hydrogen. This would reduce the need for imports in winter and increase export capacity in the summer months.
The system operator warns that rapid growth of renewable energy sources, combined with limited industrial electricity demand, may cause forced restrictions on nuclear power plants’ operation during some periods. Such restrictions may happen without long-term supply contracts. Also, heavy industries and electric arc furnace production can’t rely entirely on renewables because of variable energy output. This inconsistency makes relying solely on renewables for such energy-intensive processes challenging.
Capital requirements and key projects
The total amount of planned investments for the period until 2034 amounts to approximately BGN 2 billion. The main areas include the construction and modernization of power lines, substations, protection, and management systems. BGN 540 million has been allocated for the first three years, focusing mainly on enhancing the security and capacity of the electricity transmission network.
With a focus on renewable energy sources, the energy transformation lays the foundations for a green future for Bulgaria.
TPA Bulgaria
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